Cats - Centrum för asymmetriska hot- och terrorismstudier

Studier av asymmetriska hot i informationsåldern.

2009

2009-12-27
Magnus Ranstorp kommenterar juldagsattentatet mot ett flygplan i USA: "Wealthy, quiet, unassuming: the Christmas Day bomb suspect" (The Independent)

2009-12-09
Magnus Ranstorp kommenterar attentatsplanering i Köpenhamn: "Många likheter mellan Mumbai och Köpenhamn" (Berlingske Tiderne)

2009-12-02
Magnus Ranstorp kommenterar Al-Qaida-hot i AFP-artikel: "Al-Qaeda threat remains: experts" (AFP)

2009-12-01
Intervju med Magnus Ranstorp i Danmarks Radio med anledning av att Dansk Folkeparti uttryckt önskemål om en liknande folkomröstning kring förbud mot byggande av fler minareter som genomfördes i Schweiz 29 november 2009: "Ingen koppling mellan moskéer och terror" (dr.se)

2009-11-10
Magnus Ranstorp kommenterar i artikel om rekrytering av svenskar till terrornätverk, med anledning av längre artikel i tidskriften Neo: "Svensk värvades av al-Qaida" (nyheter24.se)

2009-10-28

CATS presenterar fyra publikationer tillgängliga att läsa i sin helhet som pdf.

Gregory F. Treverton: Briding the Divide Between Scientific and Intelligence Analysis

This paper, which grew out of a workshop held in Stockholm in June 2009 that engaged Swedish and international representatives of both intelligence and various research communities, compares the views from various fields of research with intelligence. It asks both what aspects of research are most relevant for intelligence assessments and to what extent intelligence material could be affected by the practice of different theoretical approaches. It asks how remaining challenges could be addressed with the theories existing/emerging/still missing in the respective disciplines. It addressed two topics, more for the purpose of examining methods than on debating substance:

  • The intelligence implications of the global financial crisis;
  • The dynamics of terrorism/radicalisation and understanding of the threat environment (cultural understanding).

The common elements of the challenges terrorism poses for democratic nations were striking. Analytically, the comparison across issues illustrated the need for what is called "outreach" but is better described as deeper analytic engagement; for mentoring young analysts; for more openness and open publication; and for more tolerance of "being wrong."

Briding the Divide Between Scientific and Intelligence Analysis (PDF, 305 kB)

Gregory F. Treverton (ed.): New Frontiers in Intelligence

The transition from a small world with large threats, like nuclear war, to a large world with small threats, like terrorism, has overturned all the distinctions on which Cold War intelligence was based – intelligence-policy; analyst-collector; internal-external; intelligence-law enforcement. What can be learned from they way others do intelligence – from NGOs, to businesses to criminal gangs, to the police?

New Frontiers in Intelligence (PDF, 380 kB)

Gregory F. Treverton: Addressing "Complexities" in Homeland Security

"Complexities" and their close kin, "wicked problems", pose a sharp challenge for intelligence on terrorism and homeland security. Small groups form and reforming, seeking vulnerabilities, constantly adapting and thus interacting in ways that have no pattern comparable to those that usually exist for mysteries. How can intelligence make sense of complexities for the benefit of both policy-makers and operators in homeland security?

Addressing "Complexities" in Homeland Security (PDF, 281 kB)

Gregory F. Treverton: Approaches to "Outreach" in Intelligence

Too often intelligence agencies think of reaching out to expertise outside the government, if they think of it at all, as purely an opportunity for collection. It is not, for those experts being consulted will not long continue on that basis. It has to be a relationship, with information flowing in both directions. It is better conceived as external engagement than outreach. What are some of the forms that engagement might take?

Approaches to "Outreach" in Intelligence (PDF, 322 kB)

Publikation utgiven av Cambridge University Press:

Gregory F. Treverton and Wilhelm Agrell (eds.): National Intelligence Systems - Current Research and Future Prospects

A series of investigations, especially in the United States and Britain, has focused attention on the performance of national intelligence services. At the same time, the onset of an era of terrorism and a broad span of transnational security challenges have highlighted the crucial role of intelligence. This book takes stock of the underlying intellectual substructure of intelligence. For intelligence – as for other areas of policy – serious intellectual inquiry is the basis for improving the performance of real-world institutions. This volume explores intelligence from an intellectual rather than an organizational perspective. Instead, the aim of the book is to identify themes that run through these applications, such as the lack of comprehensive theories, the unclear relationships between providers and users of intelligence, and the predominance of bureaucratic organizations driven by collection.

A key element is the development – or, rather, nondevelopment – of intelligence toward an established set of methods and standards and, above all, an ongoing scientific discourse. Here, in the transformation from an experience-based protoscience to a science of intelligence in-being, the book argues, lies perhaps the most fundamental challenge for a field of immense impact on the international community, on nations, and on individuals.

Läs mer på förlagets webbplats

2009-10-20
CATS-medarbetaren Jan Leijonhielm gratuleras med porträtt i DN, med anledning av 65-årsdagen. Läs hela artikeln (PDF, 99 kB).

2009-07-13
Artikel av Magnus Ranstorp i Västerbottens-Kuriren: "Inrikesdepartement behövs"

2009-07-10
Magnus Ranstorp medverkar med kapitel i boken The World to Come – Post-G8 Ideas and Proposals (Bocconi University Press). Bland andra medverkande i boken finns bland andra USA:s president Barack Obama, Kinas president Hu Jintao och Rysslands president Dimitri Medvedev. Läs mer om boken.

2009-07-07
Debattartikel av Magnus Ranstorp på Newsmill: "Ska vi ha Säpos eller EU:s syn på terrorism?"

2009-06-16
Cats medverkar i forskningsprojektet Project Aether, som sträcker sig över två år från starten i april 2009. Projektet finansieras av European Commission Directorate-General Justice, Freedom and Security.

2009-05-30
Magnus Ranstorp citerad i Los Angeles Times om Hezbollah och en terrorplan i Azerbaijan: "Azerbaijan seen as new front in Mideast conflict"

2009-05-09
Georg Metz debattartikel i danska tidningen Information, 9 maj 2009. Artikeln kommenterar intervju med Magnus Ranstorp i DR (april 2009) angående Danmarks beredskap inför ett eventuellt terrorangrepp: "Hvis terror rammer"

2009-03-23
Bidrag från Rory Medcalf, The Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, Australia - Security Challenges, Vol. 5, No. 1 (Autumn 2009): Australia's Strategic Analysis Capabilities: Reaching Critical Mass (PDF, 101 kB)

Magnus Ranstorp i debattartikel i Kvällsposten Expressen: "Lomhörda vänsterpartister - mothugg"

2009-03-13
CATS och Alexanderinstitutet vid Helsingfors universitet har fått ett tvåårigt EU-projekt (DG JLS) rörande CBRN-terrorism godkänt. Projekt Aehter kommer att genomföras 2009-2010 och rör beredskap och konsekvenshantering av ett CBRN-hot på ett flygplan. Projektet kommer att omsätta totalt ca 10 miljoner SEK. Ett stort antal privata partners är också en del av projektet, bl a SAAB Security och Finnair.

2009-02-14
Artikel i danska tidningen Politiken: "Radikaliseringen breder ut sig i Rosengård" (PDF, 13 kB)

Brännpunkt-artikel i Svenska Dagbladet: "Diskutera sakfrågan om Rosengård istället"

2009-02-07
Brännpunkt-artikel i Svenska Dagbladet: "Rosengård förtjänar bättre argument"

2009-02-02
Magnus Ranstorp och Lars Nicander bemöter kritiken mot rapporten "Hot mot demokrati och värdegrund" i en debattartikel på newsmill.se: "Kritiken från Lundaforskarna är politisk och inte vetenskaplig"

2009-01-28

Rapport av Magnus Ranstorp och Josefine Dos Santos: "Hot mot demokrati och värdegrund - en lägesbild från Malmö" (PDF, 188 kB)

Brännpunkt-artikel i Svenska Dagbladet: "Kommuner måste hejda extremism"

2009-01-13
Senior Analyst Fredrik Konnander kommenterar användandet av Internet som medel för påverkan i konflikten i Gaza för tidningen Metro: "Gazakonflikten kan avgöras på internet"

2009-01-05
Dr. Gregory Treverton kommenterar Leon Panetta, ny chef för CIA: 89.3 KPCC-FM Southern California public radio