Rebel-led relief efforts heightened conflict risks

When the cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar in May 2023, a rebel group played a central role in the disaster response. The efforts brought relief and strengthened the group's local legitimacy, but also paved the way for renewed fighting, shows new research from the Swedish Defence University.

When the cyclone Mocha struck Myanmar’s Rakhine state on 14 May 2023, the ethnic armed organisation Arakan Army (AA) became a central actor in local relief and recovery. A new study by Kyungmee Kim, Associate Senior Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, shows how the group’s humanitarian efforts both alleviated suffering and influenced the trajectory of the ongoing conflict.

Rebel relief efforts brought political gains

The research finds that non-state armed groups can play a significant role in disaster response in conflict zones. In Rakhine state, the AA stepped in where the military junta did little to evacuate people at risk and restricted humanitarian assistance. Through cooperation with civil society and volunteer networks, the rebel group organised large-scale relief operations, which subsequently strengthened their local legitimacy.

However, these efforts were followed by the outbreak of conflict afterwards. These events happened in a sequence but not necessarily causal in relations, because the AA’s coordinated attack on the Myanmar Armed Forces in Rakhine State in November 2023 has long been planned.

“While the relief work boosted the group’s political standing, it also preceded a planned escalation of the conflict. The cyclone temporarily slowed but did not stop AA’s broader military strategy and forthcoming offensives”, says Kyungmee Kim.

Rohingya vulnerability and the limits of the international humanitarian system

The findings also underscore who was left behind. Rohingya communities suffered severe losses due to inadequate evacuation and limited access to aid. Their long-standing marginalization, movement restrictions and fear of the AA, shaped by past abuse, further worsened their vulnerability. International humanitarian access restrictions in Rakhine compounded the situation.

The study highlights the dilemmas facing humanitarian organisations and foreign governments when disasters occur in conflict settings. Some armed groups have the capacity to support relief efforts, while others restrict access or use humanitarian engagement for strategic gain.

In the case of the cyclone Mocha, the international community hesitated to engage with the AA, partly due to the group’s role in abuses against the Rohingya.

“As the AA has since gained territorial control and military strength, the cyclone response appears to have been a missed opportunity for dialogue”, says Kyungmee Kim.

The research also identifies trusted civil-society actors who could act as intermediaries in challenging political environments. Ongoing aid cuts, including the recent USAID withdrawal, further raise the stakes for understanding how reduced resources affect disaster response in conflict areas.

Studying the intersection of climate, conflict and governance

“Myanmar’s high climate vulnerability and protracted crises motivated me to examine how disasters unfold under armed conflict”, says Kyungmee Kim.

The research draws primarily on secondary sources, such as interviews, media reports and public statements and contributes to a growing body of work on how non-state armed groups govern, respond to disasters and influence local power relations. It also points to gaps in knowledge, such as gendered vulnerabilities, intra-communal dynamics and the experiences of other ethnic minorities, that require further investigation.

A need for cautious disaster diplomacy

“Overall, the research shows that disaster response operations in conflict zones are never neutral. They can ease suffering but also reshape political legitimacy and military strategy. For international actors, this underscores the importance of nuanced, context-specific engagement when disasters strike amid war”, says Kyungmee Kim.