Panel discussion: Modernizing deterrence theory

Welcome to an open discussion on how to rethink and modernize deterrence theory for today's complex world.

"I always thought just being ready was the point. It keeps people in check. It keeps the world straight. If they see how prepared we are, no one starts a nuclear war."
— A House of Dynamite, Director Kathryn Bigelow, 2025

In the film A House of Dynamite (currently on Netfilx), the US President is astonished that deterrence has failed and that, within the following minutes, approximately 2.7 million people (a quarter of Sweden's population) would die from a single missile strike, triggering a nuclear war. For the President, being well prepared should have been enough to prevent such an attack—yet it was not.

Although fictional, this scenario forces us to confront some uncomfortable questions: Could this happen in reality? Perhaps our current understanding of deterrence leaves us dangerously unprepared. Have we become too complacent about deterrence? Is there something wrong with current deterrence theory? Does deterrence theory need a refresh?

Spoiler alert: This panel discussion will arguably answer YES to all of these questions.

We live in an era of radical uncertainty: the weakening of the international legal framework around nuclear weapons, growing regional instabilities, inter-alliance frictions, emerging digital and other new technologies, the spread of hybrid threats, and shifting power dynamics. All of these factors challenge the fragile balance of terror. To maintain credible deterrence, we must be humble and acknowledge both what we know and what we do not know. We need to update the way we think about classical deterrence theory and adapt its approach to today's context. Our thinking and strategies must be resilient to surprises, embrace uncertainty, and harness the very fear of failure to prevent escalation.

Join us for an open discussion on how to rethink and modernize deterrence theory for today's complex world.

Moderator:

Kjell Engelbrekt, Professor of Political Science, Swedish Defence University

Panelists:

Michelle Black, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska

Karl Sörenson, Director of Research and Deputy Director of the Department for Strategy and Policy, Swedish Defence Research Agency

Lars Wikman, Defence Policy Analyst at the Swedish Parliamentary Research Service with a research affiliation to the Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

July Decarpentrie, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

Registration

Register via the link no later than 16 February to participate: Link to registration