Resilient electricity supply in Sweden: Towards a national crisis energy system (RESISTANCE)

The research project "Resilient electricity supply in Sweden: Towards a national crisis energy system (RESISTANCE)" will analyse the Swedish energy system based on four different crisis scenarios.

The main objective of the project is to map the resilience of the electricity system in Sweden in times of crisis by answering three research questions:

1. In case of electricity shortages in different crisis scenarios, how much electricity can be saved at the expense of comfort to keep our society running?
2. In different crisis scenarios, how vulnerable is the main electricity network in Sweden?
3. How do we expect residents to act in times of an energy crisis, and how willing are residents to change their electricity consumption behaviour in times of crisis?

From cyberattacks to climate-induced effects, technical failures and war

The project will make use of four different scenarios, that will be further worked out during the project to evaluate the relevance and probability of the different scenarios.

The initial scenarios are chosen such that they cover a wide range of causes, e.g. ranging from cyberattacks to climate-induced effects, and from technical failures to the geopolitical effects of a war in Europe. Also, they affect different parts of the electricity grid, from producing nodes to consuming nodes and from internal grid connections to external grid connections:

• Through a cyberattack targeted at smart home devices, a third party gains control over all smart heat pumps in Sweden. By steering all heat pumps simultaneously on and off, the electricity system gets completely disrupted.
• A major power plant is closed due to malfunctioning, influencing the supply to the system.
• A hurricane causes massive tree falls, disrupting major high voltage power lines, thus disrupting connections between nodes in the electricity network. Produced electricity cannot be transported to the consumers.
• Due to war in Europe, electricity shortages become a security issue and borders are closed for import and export of electricity. Sweden needs to rely completely on self-sufficiency.

The project will map both the vulnerabilities of the energy system as well as opportunities and solutions in different crisis scenarios. In this approach the enerdy siystem is considered as a socio-technical system, and the projects looks both at the technical opportunities and constraints in the current system, as well as the human component, expected behaviour and willingness to adapt.

The focus of the project is on the electricity system, including demand, supply and infrastructure. Hierarchical modelling for scaling between the individual households and the national scale will be used, in order to make conclusions at national scale level.

More resilient electric system

The results will support the construction of a more resilient electricity system in Sweden, with better preparedness for future energy crises.

Interdisciplinary collaboration

The project will collaborate with an interdisciplinary group of researchers from a variety of disciplines at the Swedish Defence University and Uppsala University, combining competences in energy systems, data analysis, crisis management, and cognitive psychology.

The project is carried out during the period 2024–2026 and is a collaboration between researchers at Uppsala University and the Swedish Defence University, where the Swedish Defence University is the coordinator.